Have you ever witnessed such an exciting game with so many players????

The Congress and BJP are attacking each other all the time, but both are weak in their political fight against regional kings and queens. One sees no sign of any improvement in the BJP's weak political position in Uttar Pradesh or absence in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. That gives the Congress hope in spite of its many weaknesses. Surely, in UP, some reliable reports have suggested that the BJP may spring a surprise on Mayawati and Congress by getting the Brahmin votes.

As of today the following options are visible to common indian who are interestd in politics:

1. If the Congress gets 20 seats more than the BJP the momentum to form the next government will be with the Congress. But, if and when it tries to cobble together a majority of 272, it looks like the Congress will not bend over backwards to retain power. It may not compromise for short term gains and stake its future.

The way the Congress has handled Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh, Sharad Pawar, Dr Ramadoss and Ram Vilas Paswan shows that it is firm in building up the party to secure its long term future. Meaning, Rahul Gandhi. Its insistence to go solo at the national level is being taken seriously, now.

2. Both the BJP and Congress are worried about the stability factor of the next government if the majority is attained after making heavy compromises. The Congress will surely give serious thought to staying out of power instead of accepting the Left's dictates. If the Congress is in the lead position on May 16, the day of counting, and if the Left has 35 or more seats, then post-election the first tussle will be between them.

3. If the combined strength of the Congress and BJP does not touch 272 seats then the Third Front will grab the leadership in negotiating new alliances and will try to present a cohesive facade. In that case the Congress will be surely the kingmaker. That's because any non-BJP and non-Congress Third Front can never have 272 seats: The DMK and AIDMK can't be in one group; the Left and Mamta can't be in one group; and, how can Mulayam or his man become home minister and, say, with Mayawati or her man as finance minister?

So, even if a new coalition is formed with a sizeable number of seats it will not be able to cobble together the 272 seats needed for a simple majority, without the Congress or the BJP's inside or outside support. This will give an edge to the Congress or BJP to dictate from the outside even if they lose the great game.

4. But, here is magic. If and when the Congress sees that it is not in a position to form the government it may try to play kingmaker. The BJP can also enter the ring and sponsor Sharad Pawar, Jaylalithaa or Nitish Kumar. Backroom boys will ensure that the Congress or BJP, whoever lends support to the new formation, will take care of the national party's interests as well.

If the new alliance is formed without the Congress and BJP, both will try to play the role of an aggressive Opposition and the battle for next election will begin as soon as the new alliance comes to power.

5. If the BJP becomes the single largest party with some 25 or more seats than the Congress it will be a big surprise of this election. So far, there are no signals around to give such confidence to the BJP. But surprises are never ruled out in an Indian election. An X factor is also the delimitation exercise which has altered many constituencies drastically.

6. Another debate in political circles veers around Mayawati. Even if Mayawati gets 35 to 45 seats, she will be the most opposed leader after the election. The Left parties are livid that she has put up 48 candidates in West Bengal and they just don't want her to land in Kerala and cut into their core voter base. The so-called fourth front of Lalu-Mulayam-Paswan is essentially to stop her rath from rolling over their Dalit and OBC vote bank.

7. The beauty of this election is that the Congress, BJP and Third Front are all in the race at this stage. The momentum doesn't seem to be with anybody, so most news reports claim that local issues and the caste factor will decide the candidates' fate.

one can safely say that if the Congress retains its seats or gets a few more seats than the BJP, then by May 18, Ahmed Patel, Sonia Gandhi's political secretary, will start calling regional leaders from his three mobile phones to grab the leadership position.

8. As mentioned above, if the 2004 scenario is not repeated and if the Congress loses the driver's position, even then the Congress is likely to become kingmaker because the Third Front will not have 272 seats with them. And it is not difficult to predict who will never get Sonia Gandhi's consent to be prime minister of the new alliance.

Say, if Sharad Pawar, in spite of small numbers, manages by hook or crook to get sizeable parties in his favour, it is highly possible that Sonia Gandhi will not trust him. If, any such leader from the regional parties including Mayawati goes to the BJP to get its support from the outside or inside, it is argued that in such a scenario the Left will not support that government. The Left parties will stay miles away from any formation where the BJP is in a pivotal role.

Nobody can predict the future but surely these are the best days for gambling on such bets. These are really the golden days for media and entertainment industry in India as 2 out of 3 religions (cricket,bollywood and POLITICS)of India will be on song for next couple of months.

hey guys enjoy the Sumeer 09 and don't forget to cast your vote...It does matter.. :)